4. The Northern Irish population is becoming more Catholic/Nationalist
Following on from the unionist majority ending, changing demographics suggest that Northern Ireland will be made up of more people from a catholic/nationist background. In a bold statement, the author of a recent edition of The Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report has declared: “Statistically the future is Catholic, the future is female.” Historically, the vast majority of Catholics vote for nationist/republican parties such as Sinn Fein and the SDLP. This could lead to nationists calling for a border poll, which Sinn Fein has already begun doing in recent weeks.
5. Some polls in Northern Ireland suggest that the majority now supports a United Ireland
Since Brexit, some polls in Northern Ireland have suggested that there is support for a United Ireland. A recent Belfast Telegraph survey of 12,000 random people asking whether it was time to have a border poll and whether the respondents would vote for it: “7,645 votes were cast in the space of 24 hours. Overwhelming – 73% – said the time was right for a poll. We also asked a second question on what way people would vote. And 70% said they would vote for a united Ireland.”
6. Polls in Republic have always favoured unity
Polls in the Republic of Ireland have always shown favour for Irish Unity if the time was right and the circumstances were right. Indeed, a 2015 survey showed that 66% of people in the republic answered: “Yes – would like to see a united Ireland in my lifetime.” Thus, if a United Ireland was presented and it was favourable for the Republic, the people of the south are likely to vote for it.
